Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15481

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.397). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15480, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15481
    30 Oct 2026, 20:38 UTC

    ZC3HAV1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZC3HAV1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredacfd7356f607e5d8

    discovery-0.32 p=0.397 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.962 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.397)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    82e58d2543593d40d81440f5…
    follows 5f16b6d9724c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15481: ZC3HAV1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.06, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZC3HAV1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.