Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15479

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.414). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15478, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15479
    30 Oct 2026, 20:35 UTC

    KCTD9

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKCTD9 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9b14d33bda31a6c6

    discovery+0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    replication+0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.414)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e7beed0d40cf1e1a82205ce3…
    follows 7e7da69372dd…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15479: KCTD9 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 0.123, n 18), 95% CI -0.11 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.24 (p 0.337, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.54, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.38 (p 0.123, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCTD9 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.