Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15471

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.599). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15470, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15471
    30 Oct 2026, 20:24 UTC

    PLEKHB2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPLEKHB2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered806e767013c4d116

    discovery-0.20 p=0.599 n=9

    replication-0.12 p=0.767 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.599)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    10eb57421b0d48f2acc392ce…
    follows 57f99be09f45…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15471: PLEKHB2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.652, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.21 to +0.01, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PLEKHB2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.