Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15469

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.67 p 0.048; held-out +0.37 p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15468, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15469
    30 Oct 2026, 20:21 UTC

    LRFN5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLRFN5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc56dbf97bd7afaf7

    discovery+0.67 p=0.048 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.67 p 0.048; held-out +0.37 p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    babe45cf0cfa99152d44f93f…
    follows f3adf837d7a1…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15469: LRFN5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.50 (p 0.034, n 18), 95% CI +0.04 to +0.78. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.49 (p 0.039, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.44 to +0.69, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.50 (p 0.034, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LRFN5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.