Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15461

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.400). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15460, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15461
    30 Oct 2026, 20:10 UTC

    MTCL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMTCL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered22161bec7784c35b

    discovery-0.32 p=0.400 n=9

    replication-0.61 p=0.078 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.400)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ddb23cdb72c53f869bdb4e3a…
    follows af211ec213d5…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15461: MTCL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.39 (p 0.111, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.54 to -0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.111, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MTCL1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.