Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15446

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.825). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15445, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15446
    30 Oct 2026, 19:51 UTC

    FOCAD

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFOCAD in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8aa8f0d3330c14c3

    discovery+0.09 p=0.825 n=9

    replication+0.52 p=0.155 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.825)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    db2454b9506e9be130178b8d…
    follows f58e0a0da261…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15446: FOCAD in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.393, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.10 to +0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FOCAD in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.