Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15441

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.591). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15440, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15441
    30 Oct 2026, 19:43 UTC

    EEF1E1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEEF1E1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb1281e4e24fe732e

    discovery+0.21 p=0.591 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.591)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0515fc46f1c06deb61c1cc47…
    follows 12f7a1de31e0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15441: EEF1E1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.26 (p 0.302, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.16 to +0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EEF1E1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.