Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15411

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.855). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15410, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15411
    30 Oct 2026, 19:01 UTC

    TM4SF1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTM4SF1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddb455613bed5bffb

    discovery+0.07 p=0.855 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.623 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.855)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    eeebed74b4ae8d754fcd9751…
    follows 965543b694f8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15411: TM4SF1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.504, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TM4SF1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.