Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15409

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.49, p 0.186). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15408, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15409
    30 Oct 2026, 18:59 UTC

    TMEM17

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTMEM17 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3adccbfb147b60bd

    discovery+0.49 p=0.186 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.784 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.49, p 0.186)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    625931cd4a18239bb9c903c9…
    follows 692e4029659c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15409: TMEM17 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.515, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM17 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.