Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15405

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.508). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15404, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15405
    30 Oct 2026, 18:53 UTC

    SNAI1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSNAI1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredecbb6bd29fe06329

    discovery-0.25 p=0.508 n=9

    replication-0.22 p=0.563 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.508)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    de4e13c541fbf2850022da5b…
    follows 4fe1e598bac6…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15405: SNAI1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SNAI1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.