Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15401

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.886). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15400, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15401
    30 Oct 2026, 18:48 UTC

    PNMA8A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPNMA8A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbeceb3c1a03cf1eb

    discovery-0.06 p=0.886 n=9

    replication-0.22 p=0.570 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.886)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b0ec4a4fca148213fdd1d37a…
    follows 6cd68e83d210…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15401: PNMA8A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.16, sign flips 11; without severely affected donors +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PNMA8A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.