Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15399

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.910). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15398, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15399
    30 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC

    SCOC

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSCOC in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9ed06d7696cda0c9

    discovery+0.04 p=0.910 n=9

    replication+0.58 p=0.105 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.910)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9037e9de4efed502df5f01ee…
    follows d12701e142d9…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15399: SCOC in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.31 (p 0.204, n 18), 95% CI -0.18 to +0.68. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.24 to +0.51, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SCOC in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.