Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15397

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.631). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15396, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15397
    30 Oct 2026, 18:42 UTC

    TMEM144

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTMEM144 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcef8396fa152ccd0

    discovery+0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    replication+0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.631)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a08d59391b17211d710b99bf…
    follows f2de159ef5d6…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15397: TMEM144 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.33 (p 0.185, n 18), 95% CI -0.16 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.42 (p 0.086, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.24 to +0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM144 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.