Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15394

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.125). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15393, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15394
    30 Oct 2026, 18:39 UTC

    CBLN2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCBLN2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered68fb47ea36ae1a43

    discovery+0.55 p=0.125 n=9

    replication+0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.125)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8fdbff72e9427e4b373bb7e7…
    follows 5bbe402f1711…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15394: CBLN2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.46 (p 0.055, n 18), 95% CI -0.01 to +0.76. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.38 to +0.61, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CBLN2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.