Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1538

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.207). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1537, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1538
    18 Oct 2026, 01:10 UTC

    PHTF2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPHTF2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda04275e3574c1373

    discovery+0.47 p=0.207 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.207)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b86bf7d6e194beaa497d1475…
    follows 018cf808ac3b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1538: PHTF2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.05 (p 0.840, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.18, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.05 (p 0.840, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PHTF2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.