Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15379

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.416). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15378, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15379
    30 Oct 2026, 18:20 UTC

    GCC2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGCC2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd698145f2d3976a8

    discovery+0.31 p=0.416 n=9

    replication-0.24 p=0.539 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.416)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d4203ae5f79e274dba2f23f2…
    follows 51fdaa532512…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15379: GCC2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.908, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.12, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GCC2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.