Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15377

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.80 p 0.0097; held-out -0.11 p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15376, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15377
    30 Oct 2026, 18:17 UTC

    DGKI

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDGKI in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6d330cfa19155a58

    discovery+0.80 p=0.0097 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.80 p 0.0097; held-out -0.11 p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    7c1a8f5a5e71c2e660db2418…
    follows 854f7e074d58…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15377: DGKI in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.31 (p 0.218, n 18), 95% CI -0.19 to +0.68. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.23 to +0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.31 (p 0.218, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: +0.66 (p 0.0026, n 18) vs +0.31 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DGKI in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up DGKI · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.18 p 0.534 (needs p < 1.5e-4)