Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15375

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.58, p 0.101). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15374, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15375
    30 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC

    FAM3C

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFAM3C in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd1f4b9d708613c65

    discovery+0.58 p=0.101 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.906 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.58, p 0.101)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    aa52a51f9a49e8c886bf9404…
    follows 92e7819e3286…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15375: FAM3C in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.15 (p 0.561, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.04 to +0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FAM3C in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.