Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15373

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.63, p 0.067). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15372, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15373
    30 Oct 2026, 18:12 UTC

    ARR3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARR3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered159bfb2a0bdb9037

    discovery-0.63 p=0.067 n=9

    replication+0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.63, p 0.067)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e39c867f68ea5770aff3dd65…
    follows 052bc62547b9…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15373: ARR3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.915, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.09, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.915, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARR3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.