Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15371

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15370, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15371
    30 Oct 2026, 18:09 UTC

    SCGB1D1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSCGB1D1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredeb2b29d3d9154d6e

    discovery-0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    replication+0.35 p=0.362 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9880fbec6e5109dafa146fa8…
    follows 472de8c207fd…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15371: SCGB1D1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.671, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.31 (p 0.218, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.21 to +0.01, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SCGB1D1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.