Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15361

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.75 p 0.020; held-out -0.28 p 0.470). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15360, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15361
    30 Oct 2026, 17:55 UTC

    ARMCX3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARMCX3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0839639cf64d122c

    discovery-0.75 p=0.020 n=9

    replication-0.28 p=0.470 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.75 p 0.020; held-out -0.28 p 0.470)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    217a2018601a721b94a67776…
    follows c2a2c64a31d1…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15361: ARMCX3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.089, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.49 (p 0.040, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.089, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARMCX3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.