Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15359

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.802). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15358, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15359
    30 Oct 2026, 17:53 UTC

    CST2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCST2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf0f426cc38324354

    discovery-0.10 p=0.802 n=9

    replication-0.62 p=0.078 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.802)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    80516324bd679f305ee82b7f…
    follows 6c3561382f92…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15359: CST2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.38 (p 0.125, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.11. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.032, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.38 (p 0.125, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CST2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.