Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15357

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.639). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15356, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15357
    30 Oct 2026, 17:50 UTC

    LYPLA1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLYPLA1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered740a7146e9cb103c

    discovery-0.18 p=0.639 n=9

    replication+0.23 p=0.549 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.639)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a84596e9fe031192d0f8e6d9…
    follows d0e9988cfe5b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15357: LYPLA1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.07 (p 0.774, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.21, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LYPLA1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.