Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15350

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.597). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15349, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15350
    30 Oct 2026, 17:41 UTC

    NDST1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNDST1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered45bdcdd8a3762db5

    discovery-0.20 p=0.597 n=9

    replication-0.77 p=0.015 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.597)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8e29b21fe3dbf34597f2f228…
    follows 6a7c0c80db15…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15350: NDST1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.56 (p 0.015, n 18), 95% CI -0.82 to -0.13. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.58 (p 0.012, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.64 (p 0.0044, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.71 to -0.51, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.56 (p 0.015, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NDST1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.