Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15337

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.360). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15336, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15337
    30 Oct 2026, 17:25 UTC

    KCTD7

    microglia, braak

    predictionKCTD7 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6572c4cccea69f87

    discovery+0.35 p=0.360 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.266 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.360)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6842e2f7cd8b35752396f3ab…
    follows 3b3075eff1b1…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15337: KCTD7 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.07, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCTD7 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.