Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15335

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.499). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15334, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15335
    30 Oct 2026, 17:22 UTC

    XIRP2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionXIRP2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered40b27da0a675410b

    discovery+0.26 p=0.499 n=9

    replication+0.40 p=0.285 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.499)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cead997de1e82e36b09c6a63…
    follows c6b6e69e6f8d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15335: XIRP2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.35 (p 0.156, n 18), 95% CI -0.14 to +0.70. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.39 (p 0.107, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.26 to +0.54, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for XIRP2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.