Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15328

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.38, p 0.309). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15327, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15328
    30 Oct 2026, 17:11 UTC

    SULT2A1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSULT2A1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2845b75807403b1c

    discovery+0.38 p=0.309 n=9

    replication-0.61 p=0.083 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.38, p 0.309)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    496ee570fb2ec484597ac081…
    follows 4676825b9fec…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15328: SULT2A1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.13 (p 0.615, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.14, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SULT2A1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.