Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15320

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.76 p 0.016; held-out +0.16 p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15319, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15320
    30 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC

    AARS2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAARS2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc477dff3647b9faa

    discovery-0.76 p=0.016 n=9

    replication+0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.76 p 0.016; held-out +0.16 p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    603b74b5b0193574ae33ea7a…
    follows 5f6520c59d87…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15320: AARS2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.41 (p 0.087, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.17, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AARS2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.