Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15307

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.436). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15306, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15307
    30 Oct 2026, 16:44 UTC

    RPS19

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRPS19 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7b0f65be7f446f2b

    discovery+0.30 p=0.436 n=9

    replication-0.13 p=0.735 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.436)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fa9733f18aabfe3764a94415…
    follows 4d8fde6e4428…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15307: RPS19 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.15 (p 0.561, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.03 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RPS19 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.