Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15287

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.888). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15286, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15287
    30 Oct 2026, 16:19 UTC

    TBC1D20

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTBC1D20 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaa75e0cbc9775f5f

    discovery-0.06 p=0.888 n=9

    replication+0.10 p=0.790 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.888)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a6ec6f7046d9ab661950cc15…
    follows 8fb1e6cc2be6…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15287: TBC1D20 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.03 to +0.22, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TBC1D20 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.