Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15281

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.186). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15280, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15281
    30 Oct 2026, 16:11 UTC

    LCN1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLCN1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered36780ec5b3d52b4e

    discovery-0.49 p=0.186 n=9

    replication-0.51 p=0.163 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.186)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d00ddf87597040b47d21e9ac…
    follows 34452a184fe3…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15281: LCN1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.51 (p 0.029, n 18), 95% CI -0.79 to -0.06. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.58 (p 0.013, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.57 (p 0.014, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.67 to -0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.51 (p 0.029, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LCN1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.