Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1526

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.773). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1525, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1526
    18 Oct 2026, 00:51 UTC

    MRPL10

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMRPL10 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf7f16c03b5deeb42

    discovery-0.11 p=0.773 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.321 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.773)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a475c387e926ddd7c0a446a2…
    follows daf8c9b1869c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1526: MRPL10 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.597, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.02 to +0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MRPL10 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.