Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15252

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.38, p 0.309). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15251, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15252
    30 Oct 2026, 15:29 UTC

    SMAD6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSMAD6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5309672a27527ee8

    discovery+0.38 p=0.309 n=9

    replication-0.72 p=0.030 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.38, p 0.309)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f21c55db9e7bb8fa2d46e1f6…
    follows cd670d50d9e5…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15252: SMAD6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.179, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.35 (p 0.159, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.49 to -0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SMAD6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.