Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15248

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.946). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15247, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15248
    30 Oct 2026, 15:24 UTC

    ITGB1BP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionITGB1BP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2ca3d356a3d4fa96

    discovery-0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    replication+0.79 p=0.011 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.946)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    488dadbd14ce3cf6a7c8bdd7…
    follows 343adb12e9fb…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15248: ITGB1BP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.40 (p 0.097, n 18), 95% CI -0.08 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.43 (p 0.074, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.35 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ITGB1BP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.