Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15235

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.630). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15234, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15235
    30 Oct 2026, 15:07 UTC

    PGRMC1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPGRMC1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd7d994d83ed7f8d6

    discovery+0.19 p=0.630 n=9

    replication+0.33 p=0.387 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.630)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ce8b667a9804d93901786d75…
    follows 5844094003a7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15235: PGRMC1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.33 (p 0.179, n 18), 95% CI -0.16 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.25 to +0.49, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PGRMC1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.