Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15222

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.88 p 0.0017; held-out +0.10 p 0.796). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15221, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15222
    30 Oct 2026, 14:51 UTC

    SPARCL1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSPARCL1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7e4ea27a1ec002aa

    discovery-0.88 p=0.0017 n=9

    replication+0.10 p=0.796 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.88 p 0.0017; held-out +0.10 p 0.796)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    fb4bae30881f00b6f5292ec8…
    follows 8d41e87d5fea…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15222: SPARCL1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.31 (p 0.218, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.19. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.31 (p 0.218, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SPARCL1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.