Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15218

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15217, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15218
    30 Oct 2026, 14:45 UTC

    BTNL2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBTNL2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4396962e31214e92

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e1afd4a9cd1c7c57301970bb…
    follows 1a1029c9cb3a…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15218: BTNL2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.754, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.867, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.18, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BTNL2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.