Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15206

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.214). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15205, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15206
    30 Oct 2026, 14:29 UTC

    SLC7A1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC7A1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5e6a1d54ca79f69b

    discovery-0.46 p=0.214 n=9

    replication-0.10 p=0.802 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.214)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4dbb17453db528a695d9f367…
    follows 123ce70705cc…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15206: SLC7A1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.24 (p 0.328, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.25. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.31 (p 0.214, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.35 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC7A1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.