Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15204

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.654). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15203, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15204
    30 Oct 2026, 14:26 UTC

    TRA2B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTRA2B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered09857a12020b2590

    discovery+0.17 p=0.654 n=9

    replication+0.29 p=0.443 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.654)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    121cdb008ca27e6082f86314…
    follows 0cc8a93b8339…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15204: TRA2B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.28 (p 0.265, n 18), 95% CI -0.22 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.19 to +0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TRA2B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.