Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15202

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15201, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15202
    30 Oct 2026, 14:23 UTC

    ALG2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionALG2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5600eef0401c95d5

    discovery+0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    replication-0.36 p=0.344 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f95c559700c44a30a0ce3676…
    follows 0906b3401a51…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15202: ALG2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.24 (p 0.332, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.66 (p 0.0026, n 18) vs -0.29 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ALG2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ALG2 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.48 p 0.091 (needs p < 1.5e-4)