Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15198

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.597). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15197, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15198
    30 Oct 2026, 14:18 UTC

    SLC39A11

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC39A11 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered67e744ca9e2bb174

    discovery-0.20 p=0.597 n=9

    replication-0.47 p=0.202 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.597)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    07d2322a89903268f04fc1be…
    follows 1b5e48873041…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15198: SLC39A11 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.393, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.39 to -0.13, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC39A11 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.