Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15189

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.551). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15188, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15189
    30 Oct 2026, 14:07 UTC

    UBR1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUBR1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede7f36384706f19aa

    discovery+0.23 p=0.551 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.894 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.551)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    06ec2f2c3c09ce6a47a64d5c…
    follows df1b89125012…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15189: UBR1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.867, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.15, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.867, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UBR1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.