Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15185

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.946). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15184, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15185
    30 Oct 2026, 14:01 UTC

    AGBL5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAGBL5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered31f8796cf532d02a

    discovery+0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    replication-0.49 p=0.186 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.946)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f5185ed1a690b29458f76c5c…
    follows 9bd349d1a598…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15185: AGBL5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.261, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.56 (p 0.015, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.18, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.261, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AGBL5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.