Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15183

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.487). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15182, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15183
    30 Oct 2026, 13:59 UTC

    NPR3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNPR3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3ab61371c4f53ccf

    discovery+0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    replication+0.55 p=0.128 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.487)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3d587ad95c88a969c52e1a2a…
    follows b7da628f4eb0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15183: NPR3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.40 (p 0.101, n 18), 95% CI -0.08 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.51 (p 0.029, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.32 to +0.54, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.40 (p 0.101, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NPR3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.