Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1518

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.602). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1517, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1518
    18 Oct 2026, 00:40 UTC

    BMPR1B

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionBMPR1B in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4ee38de034b0c202

    discovery-0.20 p=0.602 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.602)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    03e4ab51fc36951bed4820dc…
    follows 087bf61ffc98…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1518: BMPR1B in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.800, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.08, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BMPR1B in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.