Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15162

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.041; held-out -0.17 p 0.656). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15161, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15162
    30 Oct 2026, 12:14 UTC

    SUOX

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSUOX in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb76ef1cc84edf123

    discovery-0.69 p=0.041 n=9

    replication-0.17 p=0.656 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.041; held-out -0.17 p 0.656)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    01321d514279a133775e1de3…
    follows e318ca8863f3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15162: SUOX in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.42 (p 0.086, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.06. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.37 (p 0.127, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.39 (p 0.111, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.42 (p 0.086, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.69 (p 0.0016, n 18) vs -0.42 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SUOX in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SUOX · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.50 p 0.076 (needs p < 1.5e-4)