Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15160

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.45, p 0.230). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15159, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15160
    30 Oct 2026, 12:11 UTC

    EDA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEDA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2da7ca215d90be7f

    discovery+0.45 p=0.230 n=9

    replication+0.43 p=0.243 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.45, p 0.230)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    968f55f81ceff0cc8cf96074…
    follows 923dd16be1b6…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15160: EDA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.41 (p 0.095, n 18), 95% CI -0.08 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.43 (p 0.074, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.32 to +0.60, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EDA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.