Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15158

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.859). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15157, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15158
    30 Oct 2026, 12:08 UTC

    SLC26A5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC26A5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5cfae592444cecc3

    discovery+0.07 p=0.859 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.859)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1beadb8a98c3a8447d585b68…
    follows fbf5d165fd5b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15158: SLC26A5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.14, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC26A5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.