Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15144

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.123). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15143, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15144
    30 Oct 2026, 11:49 UTC

    CRHR2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCRHR2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddc8b46facb8d6418

    discovery-0.55 p=0.123 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.623 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.123)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    aad36d0bd3ea7d63af74d998…
    follows c57482bc1308…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15144: CRHR2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.228, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.261, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.38 (p 0.125, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.21, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CRHR2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.