Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15140

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.361). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15139, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15140
    30 Oct 2026, 11:44 UTC

    TTC3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTTC3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcf3c0b1ab95871ca

    discovery+0.35 p=0.361 n=9

    replication+0.06 p=0.873 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.361)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    839acc5be82bb3a8fbed273f…
    follows 2d9257e67a95…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15140: TTC3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.12 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TTC3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.